This is a different kind of slanted editorializing. The US can confirm hits* on what’s suspected to be a third of Iran’s missiles.
They may have damaged or made unaccessible more than that, and I find that plausible at least. They claim to have targeted the infrastructure or storage around another third, but cannot confirm that indirect fire was effective. Probabilistically speaking, at least some of it must have been.
The real kicker though, is that US and Israeli intelligence don’t have an accurate starting point to derive to these numbers from. They have a best guess at how many missiles Iran had at the beginning of the war, but that’s all that counts for. Iran may have had exactly that many, slightly less, or sky’s the limit. We have no idea what the margin of error is truly, but it’s probably pretty bad. ±30%? More than that? Who’s to say.
With these two considerations in mind, any calculations about percentages of missiles destroyed or even out of service aren’t quite nonsense, but they’re napkin math on stilts. Best guesses by our best informed analysts… That’s still useful information, right?
Oh right it’s a propaganda war too. While this already looks like it contradicts the “official” Whitehouse line (which changes literally in the same sentence), it’s perhaps only a managed retreat from the most boisterous claims. I’ve not been that impressed with the videos Americans have released of strikes so far. They won’t shut the fuck up about destroying Iran’s air force, the navy, and “military installations,” (also see: schools, hospitals, universities, vital infrastructure for civilian life) we don’t see triumphalism video evidence supporting the narrative that thousands of missiles have been directly hit. Odd, to say the least, given the history of such evidence proudly trotted out in every other American adventure through the middle east.
So I don’t really know what to make of this news other than “it’s scared!”
This is a different kind of slanted editorializing. The US can confirm hits* on what’s suspected to be a third of Iran’s missiles.
They may have damaged or made unaccessible more than that, and I find that plausible at least. They claim to have targeted the infrastructure or storage around another third, but cannot confirm that indirect fire was effective. Probabilistically speaking, at least some of it must have been.
The real kicker though, is that US and Israeli intelligence don’t have an accurate starting point to derive to these numbers from. They have a best guess at how many missiles Iran had at the beginning of the war, but that’s all that counts for. Iran may have had exactly that many, slightly less, or sky’s the limit. We have no idea what the margin of error is truly, but it’s probably pretty bad. ±30%? More than that? Who’s to say.
With these two considerations in mind, any calculations about percentages of missiles destroyed or even out of service aren’t quite nonsense, but they’re napkin math on stilts. Best guesses by our best informed analysts… That’s still useful information, right?
Oh right it’s a propaganda war too. While this already looks like it contradicts the “official” Whitehouse line (which changes literally in the same sentence), it’s perhaps only a managed retreat from the most boisterous claims. I’ve not been that impressed with the videos Americans have released of strikes so far. They won’t shut the fuck up about destroying Iran’s air force, the navy, and “military installations,” (also see: schools, hospitals, universities, vital infrastructure for civilian life) we don’t see triumphalism video evidence supporting the narrative that thousands of missiles have been directly hit. Odd, to say the least, given the history of such evidence proudly trotted out in every other American adventure through the middle east.
So I don’t really know what to make of this news other than “it’s scared!”