Armed Forces envision insurgency tactics like those used by Afghan mujahedeen, sources say. But officials and experts stress a U.S. operation is unlikely, and the scenarios are conceptual
Armed Forces envision insurgency tactics like those used by Afghan mujahedeen, sources say. But officials and experts stress a U.S. operation is unlikely, and the scenarios are conceptual
Holy shit, that’s fucking wild. Got a source? Not that I doubt you, if anyone could do that it’s china, but… Holy shit.
You’re right, I dug back into it and the specific “WWII-level destroyer production” line was me mangling a few different sources that were making related but not identical claims.
What is well documented is that China’s shipbuilding capacity and tonnage output absolutely dwarf the United States today. A 2025 CSIS study cited by Navy Times found that a single Chinese shipyard produced more commercial ship tonnage in 2024 than the entire U.S. shipbuilding industry has built since World War II, which is where I likely had the WWII comparison stuck in my head. https://www.navytimes.com/global/asia-pacific/2025/03/11/chinas-shipbuilding-dominance-a-national-security-risk-for-us-report/
That same report notes that China now produces over 50% of global shipbuilding tonnage, while the U.S. accounts for roughly 0.1%.
Separately, U.S. Congressional Research Service and Navy assessments estimate that China’s overall shipbuilding capacity measured in gross tonnage is over 200 times larger than that of the United States, largely due to its integrated civilian–military shipyard system. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RL33153
In terms of actual naval output, a senior U.S. Indo-Pacific Command admiral has stated that China is currently producing roughly 3–4 times more naval tonnage per year than the United States, even before accounting for its massive commercial shipbuilding sector. https://www.businessinsider.com/china-outpacing-us-shipbuilding-top-indopacom-admiral-says-2025-4
So the WWII comparison was overstated, but the underlying “issue” is arguably more serious for the US. China controls roughly half of global shipbuilding capacity, much of it in dual-use yards that can be partially redirected under wartime mobilization. The United States, by contrast, represents only a fraction of a percent of global shipbuilding and lacks the industrial depth to rapidly replace naval losses in a prolonged conflict. Apologies again I will have to avoid posting so early in the morning without rechecking my sources.
Even wilder! Dang.
I don’t think that’s accurate, the PLAN had 8 Type 055s built in 4 years, and another 8 on the way in the same timespan. The USN in WW2 had over 100 cruisers built.
If we’re talking about potential though, Chinese shipbuilding capacity dwarfs the US, and in a hypothetical war scenario (that somehow doesn’t turn nuclear) with full wartime production the gap widens more. However I expect that given their expense and the fact that they’ll be priority targets that the PLAN will likely use their submarines and Type 054A/B and Type 052Ds to do the heavy lifting, since a loss of a frigate or destroyer isn’t as crippling and they’re much faster and cheaper to build. It’ll be like that image where the US navy has a handful of decades old arleigh burkes and trump battleships vs the latest batch of PLAN destroyers, laid down 2 months ago, commissioned last week, with another 4 dozen on the way.