While this is really hopeful news, be careful not to extrapolate too far. Turnout for a special election is not equal to turn out for a general or presidential election.
Historically, this is true. But I believe over the last decade this has flipped the other way around. I do not have a source though, so don’t take this as truth. I’m actually interested in looking at that data.
While this is really hopeful news, be careful not to extrapolate too far. Turnout for a special election is not equal to turn out for a general or presidential election.
With 35 months remaining until the presidential election, it looks like we should see a about a 133% shift further blue.
Isnt it usually biased the otherway? Doesnt the right typically get higher turnout for special elections than the left?
Historically, this is true. But I believe over the last decade this has flipped the other way around. I do not have a source though, so don’t take this as truth. I’m actually interested in looking at that data.
Edit: I found this, which is pretty informative. Basically, the last 6 decades, regardless elections more often flipped against the party that holds the White House. So maybe the perception that conservatives get out and vote more often in special elections is actually incorrect. It’s just a weird perception we have. https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-mini-midterms-five-takeaways-from-six-decades-of-house-special-elections/