Trump did not win the election from voters abandoning the democratic party. It’s a fun and convenient story to spin to your dearest issues, but that just isn’t what happened. I don’t doubt at all what the survey is saying, it just isn’t talking about that many people. You’ll notice nowhere in any of these graphics does it address the actual proportion of voters who fall into this category? There’s a reason for that. Masses of Biden voters staying home or voting for someone besides Harris happened in California and New York, where it was convenient. It did not happen where it actually mattered, in places like Georgia and Pennsylvania.
Across the states that flipped from 2020 to 2024 Harris got 99.4% of Biden’s total. She only lost ~79,000 votes across six states that cast more than 25 million votes each election. The difference between the 2020 Trump that lost and the 2024 Trump that got the flips was more than ten times larger, over ~810,000.
That this election was not decided on opinions about sending weapons and support to Israel is evidenced even here. In the graphics for this survey in both questions where it pops up, the choice “makes no difference” was by far the most popular answer. There’s no advocacy here from me. No pride or misery(well okay, some misery). It’s just a fact that the ‘average American’, regardless of preference between the two major political parties, does not give a shit about our bombs being used to kill brown people on the other side of the world. This really shouldn’t be news to anybody.
Yes… it does say the actual proportion of voters? That’s literally the first thing it said. Proportion of voters falling into (X) categories who voted Biden in 2020 who did not vote for Harris in 2024. It then talks about votes that flipped from Biden to Trump across swing states
The “makes no difference” is just a part of the sample size that isn’t relevant on those discussions. Clearly the important data takeaway is that 3x more people who didn’t vote Harris would have been more likely to vote for her than turned less likely to vote for her if she promised to stop sending weapons to Israel.
Honestly, it sounds like you just didn’t read the data
Hey, first of all sorry for being a nitpicky statistics nerd. I hope this doesn’t come off as debate pervertry, pedantry and the like, but i want to clarify a few things.
Their core point is that Harris didn’t lose the swing states because of absent former Biden voters, but because Trump mobilized voters that didn’t vote for him in 2020. Harris lost 79,000 voters there, Trump won 810,000. The Biden 2020 voters who didn’t go to the polls because of Gaza wouldn’t have been enough to change that result, because while Harris lost a lot of these throughout the country, she barely lost any in the battleground states. Beating Trump’s mobilization of new voters there would have required successful mobilization of people who didn’t vote Biden in 2020.
And these people are simply not represented in the dataset. People who usually don’t vote would have been interesting, first time voters would have been interesting, people who could have voted for the first time but didn’t go to the polls would have been interesting and the latter two in particular might have been won over by a convincing anti-genocide stance. Maybe enough to flip the election, the tendency shown by the results of this survey and the opinion of young people on Gaza absolutely make that a plausible assumption. That’s were i disagree with the person you’re replying to, we can’t rule out this issue was decisive. But they’re correct that this survery doesn’t prove that it was, because it looks entirely at people who voted Biden and didn’t vote Harris.
Trump did not win the election from voters abandoning the democratic party. It’s a fun and convenient story to spin to your dearest issues, but that just isn’t what happened. I don’t doubt at all what the survey is saying, it just isn’t talking about that many people. You’ll notice nowhere in any of these graphics does it address the actual proportion of voters who fall into this category? There’s a reason for that. Masses of Biden voters staying home or voting for someone besides Harris happened in California and New York, where it was convenient. It did not happen where it actually mattered, in places like Georgia and Pennsylvania.
Across the states that flipped from 2020 to 2024 Harris got 99.4% of Biden’s total. She only lost ~79,000 votes across six states that cast more than 25 million votes each election. The difference between the 2020 Trump that lost and the 2024 Trump that got the flips was more than ten times larger, over ~810,000.
That this election was not decided on opinions about sending weapons and support to Israel is evidenced even here. In the graphics for this survey in both questions where it pops up, the choice “makes no difference” was by far the most popular answer. There’s no advocacy here from me. No pride or misery(well okay, some misery). It’s just a fact that the ‘average American’, regardless of preference between the two major political parties, does not give a shit about our bombs being used to kill brown people on the other side of the world. This really shouldn’t be news to anybody.
Yes… it does say the actual proportion of voters? That’s literally the first thing it said. Proportion of voters falling into (X) categories who voted Biden in 2020 who did not vote for Harris in 2024. It then talks about votes that flipped from Biden to Trump across swing states
The “makes no difference” is just a part of the sample size that isn’t relevant on those discussions. Clearly the important data takeaway is that 3x more people who didn’t vote Harris would have been more likely to vote for her than turned less likely to vote for her if she promised to stop sending weapons to Israel.
Honestly, it sounds like you just didn’t read the data
Hey, first of all sorry for being a nitpicky statistics nerd. I hope this doesn’t come off as debate pervertry, pedantry and the like, but i want to clarify a few things.
Their core point is that Harris didn’t lose the swing states because of absent former Biden voters, but because Trump mobilized voters that didn’t vote for him in 2020. Harris lost 79,000 voters there, Trump won 810,000. The Biden 2020 voters who didn’t go to the polls because of Gaza wouldn’t have been enough to change that result, because while Harris lost a lot of these throughout the country, she barely lost any in the battleground states. Beating Trump’s mobilization of new voters there would have required successful mobilization of people who didn’t vote Biden in 2020.
And these people are simply not represented in the dataset. People who usually don’t vote would have been interesting, first time voters would have been interesting, people who could have voted for the first time but didn’t go to the polls would have been interesting and the latter two in particular might have been won over by a convincing anti-genocide stance. Maybe enough to flip the election, the tendency shown by the results of this survey and the opinion of young people on Gaza absolutely make that a plausible assumption. That’s were i disagree with the person you’re replying to, we can’t rule out this issue was decisive. But they’re correct that this survery doesn’t prove that it was, because it looks entirely at people who voted Biden and didn’t vote Harris.