Kieselguhr [none/use name]

That’s that then no longer open. Was it less than 24h?

If another opening happens everyone will be more wary than even before

4 days of ceasefire. If Israel fires, Iran can shut it again.

think about the logistics, how long it takes for a tanker to transit in, load, then transit out? cca 4-5 days assuming they started sailing in from the Oman coast, right? Who will take the risk?

Seyed Abbas Araghchi
@araghchi
In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.

he is like a 2000s Orban basically

more amenable to Brussels and NATO

he is also openly neolib, they keep talking about adhering to the Maastricht Treaty

Orban used to call himself a proud Thatcherite

I’m pretty sure he doesn’t give a shit about Palestine, sorry to say

He is not a mixed bag, he is a rightwing dipshit

Broken clock etc. his opportunist detente with Russia happened to be the right foreign policy regarding Russia

BUt otherwise hw is a rightwing dipshit

The new government will be pro-EU neoliberal centre right party, some of them defectors from Orban’s party (most notably the new PM: Peter Magyar… he literally used to sit in the front row cheering for Orban)

When was the last time corporations gave a single shit about the long term implications on the broader economy

I guess I agree with that, that’s why I said they might not mind now, if they are stupid. But the supermajors are definitely concerned about their capital being wasted by Shahed drones

newly booming energy industry

products need a buyer too

They care about their own profit margins in the short term, which are through the roof.

But I just explained why margins will tighten or even disappear in the broader economy

American oil companies are making record breaking profits right now.

yes, right now, and it’s one sector of the economy. watch what will happen in a few months

They don’t mind dragging the war out indefinitely, they don’t mind if the strait stays closed. It is Europe, China and Asia that will eat the costs while America profits wildly selling on the spot market to the highest bidders.

This is a wrong take. Or it might be true that they don’t mind (now), but then they are stupid (which is plausible). Or I guess it’s true that Exxon execs don’t mind… (well that is not true either as they spent lot of capital in the Gulf countries)

Oil is just one aspect of this shock. But even when oil and diesel prices will go up globally then US citizens will pay more at the pump too which will lower US aggregate demand, which will hurt US discretionary spending, and US is a consumer economy.

BUT there are parallel supply shocks going on. Fertiliser too, as it comes form natural gas, and helium as well which is crucial for chip-making which is crucial for data centers which are crucial to the tech boom, and Tech is dominant in the NASDAQ.

So not only it is bad for the proletariat, it will be pretty bad for US corpo profit margins as well.

well you see a couple hours before the rumour started circulating the media, that Iran “forgot where the mines are”, and if Iran planted that story then it’s epic trolling as some people might say

then probably the US has seen these articles, panicked about the market reaction, and Trump decided to post his lie

Trump claims US is clearing mines in strait of Hormuz

"Donald Trump has claimed the US has begun clearing mines in the strait of Hormuz “as a favour to countries all over the world”.

In a post on his Truth Social app, the US president said Iran’s minelaying ships “are also lying at the bottom of the sea”.

While claiming all of the Iranian military’s air and naval capabilities have diminished and its missiles and drones “have been largely obliterated”, Trump added:

The only thing they have going is the threat that a ship may “bunk” into one of their sea mines which, by the way, all 28 of their mine dropper boats are also lying at the bottom of the sea. We’re now starting the process of clearing out the Strait of Hormuz as a favor to Countries all over the World, including China, Japan, South Korea, France, Germany, and many others. Incredibly, they don’t have the Courage or Will to do this work themselves.

He repeated an earlier comment that empty tankers “from many nations” are heading to the US for oil."

yeah I think Trump is simply lying, as the US Navy is a 1000 miles away

edit from Guardian live feed:

Iranian media has denied reports that US warships have crossed the strait of Hormuz.

The denial in the semi-official Tasnim news agency follows a report by the US news site Axios, citing a US official, that several US navy ships crossed the narrow waterway today.

There are conflicting reports over what’s happened. Tasnim, quoting an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson, reported that a US destroyer attempted to enter the strait but was forced to retreat after a warning from Iran’s armed forces. Axios, citing a US official, said no such warning was given.

Earlier today, Donald Trump claimed the US has started to clear mines in the strait of Hormuz.

Tiiiime is on my siiide, yes it is

well, not on my side as I live in the West, but surely the Western powers have more to lose by dragging this out.

The US fought the Taliban for 19 years, and lost. Iran is bigger, richer, and they control the vital artery of the global economy.

That is the gist of it.

don’t get me wrong, Orban is a right-wing dipshit; my point was precisely this, that the Western framing of Orban = BAD is his detente politics towards Russia and Russia = BAD, not his labour policies for instance, because that is actually good for German capitalists

His opposition consists of renegades from is own party + liberal petite bourgeoisie. They basically went to turn back the clock and want to have a go with young pro-West Orban again, just a different skin. People don’t seem to understand how history unfolds.
Orban will probably lose the election because of the post-Covid inflation.

Today Orban was campaigning with JD Vance btw

it’s a minor thing globally speaking, but Hungarian elections are this weekend and Western intelligence agencies started leaking wiretapped calls between Orban & Putin and a couple weeks ago between Hungarian FM and Lavrov

Of course it’s only the Russians who interfere with elections, when western powers wiretap [nominally] allied leaders and leak them just before elections, that’s not interference, it’s just Rules Based International Order

‘At your service’: Hungary’s Orban offered help to Putin, Bloomberg reports

BUDAPEST, April 7 (Reuters) - Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban offered last year to help Russian President Vladimir Putin “in any way”, such as by hosting a summit in Budapest to settle the war in ​Ukraine, Bloomberg News reported, citing the transcript of a phone call.

A Hungarian government ‌spokesman did not immediately respond to a request for comment and for the release of the transcript of an October 17 call between the two leaders reviewed by Bloomberg but not verified by Reuters.

Orban nefariously wanted to host a … checks notes… peace conference, and help one of the main parties in any way to get them to sit at the table. Hard to fathom such evil exists. Real democracy lovers would only buy oil from … Azerbaijan? Interesting times.

Hungarian FM was also accused for being a… Russian spy… because he was cordial to another diplomat… exactly in the way he was cordial publicly, as he always supported normalizing relations with Russia (evil!)… this means he is a Russian spy… I swear these reporters never heard of detente…

link

Trump says US sent ‘a lot’ of guns to arm Iranian protesters but believes ‘the Kurds took’ them: report

But in an interview over the phone with Fox’s Trey Yingst on Sunday morning, the president made another piece of news: The U.S. was directly involved in efforts to destabilize and overthrow the Iranian government weeks before strikes were launched across Iran, and as U.S. negotiators were engaging with senior Iranian governmental officials in Europe. Those protests began shortly before the new year and lasted for weeks, ending in the violent subjugation of protesters by the Iranian government.

“We sent them a lot of guns. We sent them through the Kurds, and the president says he thinks the Kurds kept them,” Yingst said on Fox News, paraphrasing the president.

The tankies were right?!?!

Truly the battle of our time

Real Economy versus Fairy Dust

I wonder who will prevail

Funnily enough it’s mostly westward capacity

With its westward ​export routes under fire, Moscow must rely on oil exports to Asian markets, ​but those ⁠routes are limited due to capacity, traders said.

Russia continues uninterrupted supplies via pipelines to China, including the Skovorodino-Mohe and Atasu-Alashankou routes, as well as ESPO Blend exports by sea via the port of Kozmino.

Together, the three routes ⁠account for ​some 1.9 million bpd of oil.

Russia also continues to load oil ​from its two far eastern Sakhalin projects, shipping about 250,000 bpd from the island.

The current European elite is truly the most incompetent in history. Even compared to failson monarchs…

Exclusive: At least 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity halted, Reuters calculations show

MOSCOW, March 25 (Reuters) - At least 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity is at a halt following Ukrainian drone attacks, a disputed ​attack on a major pipeline and the seizure of tankers, according to Reuters calculations based ‌on market data.

The shutdown is the most severe oil supply disruption in the modern history of Russia, the world’s second largest oil exporter, and has hit Moscow just as oil prices exceeded $100 a barrel due to the Iran war.

Great timing! Western MSM so who knows how accurate link

So there was a leak of a phone call (teams call?) between a Politico journalist and a (german?) EU official

The call sounds like the EU power elite considers the Druzhba case just another political situation they are not really concerned about, because they don’t want Russian oil.
It’s like these morons don’t realize that we are in the beginning of the worst oil supply shock in history so basic survival in the EU needs every drop of oil they can get.
They cynically just say "EU urges hehe wink wink [who cares about Russian oil amirite?]

youtube link of the call (could someone copy it to tankie tube?)

politico confirmation of authenticity